India to overtake Japan as world's No. 3 economy in 2029

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Rise of urban population and tech sector expected to drive growth: JCER forecast


JCER projects that Mumbai will be the world's fourth-largest city in 2035.   © Reuters

JCER projects that Mumbai will be the world's fourth-largest city in 2035. © Reuters

India will surpass Japan in terms of gross domestic product in 2029 to become the world's third-largest economy, the Japan Center for Economic Research says, as the urban population and tech industry drive growth in the South Asian country.

India's economy, currently about half the size of Japan's, is destined to reach roughly $10 trillion by 2035, according to JCER's latest annual Medium-Term Forecast on Asian Economies. Japan's GDP was estimated at $4.9 trillion by the World Bank in 2018.

The populations of Mumbai and New Delhi are expected to jump by more than 40% over the 20-year period ending in 2035. Mumbai will become the fourth-largest city globally in terms of inhabitants, with New Delhi ranking fifth.

The rise of India's startups will fuel the nation's economy as well. Indian cities host nearly 10% of 115 unlisted startups worldwide that offer promising growth prospects but have valuations below $1 billion.

JCER projected the gross domestic product in 2035 for 81 major cities in 15 nations and regions. Five U.S. cities ranked near the top in the estimates, with New York taking the No. 1 spot. Tokyo came in second, while Osaka was projected as No. 10.

No Chinese city made the 2015 rankings in terms of GDP. But for 2035, JCER projects that Shanghai will soar to fourth place while Beijing and Shenzhen rank fifth and seventh, respectively.

"New industries are developing in China, such as drones and electric vehicle development," a JCER researcher said.

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